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Do supply chains suffer from Murphy’s Law?
Murphy’s Law, which states that if anything can go wrong, it will and precisely at the wrong time, is often quoted by supply chain professionals to explain performance drops during disruptions. Is it true?
The more we think about Murphy’s Law, the more it appears to be a perfect example of our ‘Confirmation Bias’. If we believe something to be true, our mind looks for instances where it gets confirmed. The mind also ignores all other evidence when the law doesn’t hold true.
Coupled with our ‘Selective Memory’, Murphy’s Law looks quite true. Do we remember an instance when an extremely urgent consignment was on its way and the vehicle broke down? Most of us would remember a couple of such instances. Does it prove Murphy’s Law?
The fact remains that out of thousands of such consignments sent over a period, only a couple of them encountered Murphy. Others escaped Murphy and are long forgotten.
Next time you quote Murphy, please remember that the root cause is not Murphy but the fact that the supply chain design is not robust enough!