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Dynamic supply chains work on heuristics.
Supply chains work in a dynamic demand environment, where plans need to be refreshed daily. Leading supply chain professionals have realised the value of daily tweaking to synchronize supplies with demand. This is done through various heuristics which have evolved and got fine-tuned over time.
What’s the impact of using so many heuristics? Have we thought through the repercussions? Supply chain professionals often don’t give it the priority it deserves.
Heuristics invariably induce biases in the calculations. Some of these biases have perhaps worked in our favour in the past, however, we are often ignorant of their impact. Heuristics also result in certain blind spots which could become significant hurdles in future.
Thinking Processes in TOC provide a good framework to analyse these heuristics, look at the inherent assumptions behind them and work out their positive as well as negative impacts. If the negative branches are significant, we must trim them through specific interventions.