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Averages are misleading. Supply Chain execution needs to be more nuanced.
Several supply chain teams use averages for parameter setting, except Demand where estimation is more nuanced. Some parameters where averages are used extensively are vendor lead time, production cycle time, vehicle placement time, transportation time.
Using averages means that the actual value is likely to be worse than the estimate roughly half of the time. No wonder we see so much expediting prevalent in their day-to-day operations.
We need to move away from averages and use a different measure such as median, 70th percentile, 90th percentile. If we have advance intimation of the delay, it is prudent to use the likely actual time to recalibrate supply actions.