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Are we imposing certainty on uncertain events?
Most supply chain professionals aren’t comfortable with uncertainty. As a result, they try imposing certainty on some inherently uncertain events. The reason for this mindset can be traced back to the early developments in Physics which have been taught to us in schools and colleges.
Laplace, a brilliant physicist, postulated that future can be predicted accurately if the past events are known in full. This led to major advancements in Physics, such as Newton’s classical mechanics, which helped in calculating the exact future position and velocity of moving objects such as cannon balls, planets and satellites. It brought certainty on timing of future eclipses, sunrises and tides. We started believing that science could bring certainty on phenomena which were earlier considered difficult to predict. This mindset prevails even now amongst supply chain professionals.
Physics changed substantially when Heisenberg postulated his famous ‘Uncertainty Principle’ that we can’t know the exact location and speed of any object even in the present! There is an inherent uncertainty imposed by our observation and measurements. This view of science is yet to be appreciated by the supply chain fraternity.
Future is going to be uncertain, no matter how much we advance in our models. The best way to handle it is by protecting our supply chain from such uncertainty through space, inventory or time buffers!